History Repeating

I found some caricatures from the year 2000.
Look familiar?

A "War"k in the park

I feel this is a relatively easy war for Israel.
Lebanon's army is week and is not participating in the fight together with the Hezbollah (even though it can). Israel is fighting via air strikes, therefore no soldiers are getting hurt, and in Tel-Aviv we feel nothing. Nothing at all.
My heart goes to the people who live in northen Israel - they are "fighting" our war. They suffer casualties in body and in property and therefore they are this war's heroes.
But this is no Iraq no. 2. We can still live a normal life. This is not the "classic" war where you see armed men running in the streets, smoke everywere and ruins on ruins.
In the crazy place I live in, I know this is not the end. When this is all over, we may have quiet for a few monthes, years or decades.
People of Israel, don't think it will be so easy next time (even though I consider myself as optimist, the reality is stronger than me now and I'm almost positive there will be a next time).

Don't forget we still have the Iranians nuclear bomb ahead...

Know your enemy

I wonder if we can refer to the "war" between Israel and Hezbollah as a war of mutual respect between enemies.
(I wrote the word 'war' in quotes because no one knows if it is a "special situation" or a "conflict" or any other weird title, or simply "war".)
What I mean when I say a war of mutual respect is that we know that the Hezbollah rockets are very accurate, and if they want, they can target our chemical factories in Haifa and cause a huge amount of casualties due to the spread of chemicals in the air.
On the other hand, we are using our air force and navy only when targeting the Hezbollah and the infrastructure. We can enter Lebanon with our infantry by land, but we don't.

As long as this weird respect between us remains, the situation (In the short term at least) will not escalate to the extreme.
But, in my opinion, if the Hezbollah feels it's the end of the organization, I'm afraid all hell will break loose.

My premonition did not miss

Just a month ago, in one of my previous posts on May 04th 2006, I wrote about a hunch I had.
About the fact that the market will drop about 10% from 900 points to 810.
Well, I'm sorry to say my gut feeling was accurate.

Too bad I don't put my money were my gut directs me.

Do not panic!

The world is not coming to an end.
What did you expect? For the market to climb forever?

The last two weeks were poor. The market is losing its height and all I hear around me is panic.
No, this is nothing like the 2001 crisis (I hope).
The stock markets climbed rapidly during the last 24 months and it's about time investors claim their profits.
I listen to the analysis of key players in the market, and they say the economy is strong and they see no special reason for these drops in the stock market but two. The one I mentioned earlier (investors claiming profits) and the second one is the interest rates - the higher the interest rates, the more the stock market suffers, and we witnessed several interest changes upwards.

If you are too nervous to cope with the current readjustment of the market, stay out till it climbs back again. It could be tomorrow, next week, next month or next year...
The sooner the better.

Ouch

I feel like I just got a slap in the face telling me to WAKE UP!
Just a few days ago I wrote that I don't get it. I wondered how come the market is rising dispite some supposedly negative events for the economy. And along comes Warren Buffet, the second richest man in the world, and buys the Israeli company "Iscar". This is the largest business deal for an Israeli company ever and Buffet's third largest.
I think it says a lot about the Israeli economy's strength.

Buffet is considering buying more Israeli companies.
Well, I wish him good luck with his last purchase and want to thank him for the slap in the face.
I needed it.

Market, High, Good

I just don't get it...
Last July, before the disengagement plan from Gaza, the stock market was at about 700 points.
The treasury minister resigned, the coalition fell apart, Sharon had a stroke and Israel went to election before the end of the term.
In between, there were suicide explosions, the rise of Hamas as the Palestinian leaders and other bad events that should have badly affected the economy.
And what do you know... the stock market is rising and rising, getting very close to 900 points, currently at the highest point ever.

As the famouse Stevie Wonder song goes: "...I hope my premonition misses...", but I think we are close to dropping back to 810 points.
No special analysis, just a hunch.